Winter Forecast 2026-27: The El Nino Picture
A strengthening El Nino is shaping the outlook for winter 2026-27. NOAA's official seasonal outlook maps -- released around mid-October -- are the single most complete official product, and this page is refreshed after every CPC release. Until then, this hub summarizes the CPC's current ENSO-based composite tendency, region by region.
The pattern driving this outlook: a stronger, southward-displaced Pacific jet stream typically brings a wetter, stormier winter to the southern US tier, while the northern tier leans warmer and drier. See the live dashboard for the current index values and probability outlook driving this page.
CPC seasonal outlook: chance of El Nino / Neutral / La Nina
View as a table
| Season | El Nino | Neutral | La Nina |
|---|---|---|---|
| JJA 2026 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| JAS 2026 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| ASO 2026 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| SON 2026 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| OND 2026 | 99% | 1% | 0% |
| NDJ 2026 | 99% | 1% | 0% |
| DJF 2027 | 99% | 1% | 0% |
| JFM 2027 | 97% | 3% | 0% |
| FMA 2027 | 90% | 9% | 1% |
Explore your region
California
Precip: wetter · Temp: near-normal to slightly cooler (south); warmer (far north)
Strong tendencyPacific Northwest
Precip: drier · Temp: warmer
Moderate confidenceSouthwest & Southern Rockies
Precip: wetter · Temp: cooler
Strong tendencyNorthern Rockies
Precip: drier · Temp: warmer
Moderate confidenceNorthern Plains
Precip: drier · Temp: warmer
Moderate confidenceMidwest & Ohio Valley
Precip: drier · Temp: warmer
Moderate confidenceTexas & Gulf Coast
Precip: wetter · Temp: cooler
Strong tendencySoutheast & Florida
Precip: wetter · Temp: cooler
Strong tendencyMid-Atlantic
Precip: near-normal, slightly wetter · Temp: near-normal to slightly warmer
Weak / mixed signalNortheast
Precip: near-normal · Temp: slightly warmer
Weak / mixed signalCurious how this event compares to past strong winters? See the live analog overlay on the dashboard, or read what makes an El Nino "super."