US Regional Winter Impacts
El Nino "loads the dice" differently across the US -- the same event that soaks California can leave the Pacific Northwest warm and dry. Every region below carries its own confidence tier, mechanism, and historical strong-event table. We never assign a single national "risk score"; see our methodology for why.
California
Precip: wetter · Temp: near-normal to slightly cooler (south); warmer (far north)
Strong tendencyPacific Northwest
Precip: drier · Temp: warmer
Moderate confidenceSouthwest & Southern Rockies
Precip: wetter · Temp: cooler
Strong tendencyNorthern Rockies
Precip: drier · Temp: warmer
Moderate confidenceNorthern Plains
Precip: drier · Temp: warmer
Moderate confidenceMidwest & Ohio Valley
Precip: drier · Temp: warmer
Moderate confidenceTexas & Gulf Coast
Precip: wetter · Temp: cooler
Strong tendencySoutheast & Florida
Precip: wetter · Temp: cooler
Strong tendencyMid-Atlantic
Precip: near-normal, slightly wetter · Temp: near-normal to slightly warmer
Weak / mixed signalNortheast
Precip: near-normal · Temp: slightly warmer
Weak / mixed signal