2026-07-09
El Nino strengthened again -- very-strong-event odds jump to 81%
The July 9 CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion keeps the El Nino Advisory in place and describes an event that "strengthened over the past month." The latest weekly Nino-3.4 index reached +1.2°C, with the eastern Nino-1+2 region running much warmer (+2.7°C) and the western Nino-4 region more muted (+0.5°C) -- the classic east-heavy warm signature of a fast-developing event.
The headline change since the June 11 Advisory: CPC's probability of a very strong event (RONI/ONI ≥ +2.0°C) for October-December rose to 81%, up from roughly 63% cited in June. NOAA still frames this in very-high-confidence, probabilistic terms -- El Nino conditions are expected to persist through early 2027, but strength forecasts this far out remain a distribution, not a promise.
See the live dashboard for current index values and the full CPC probability distribution, and what "super El Nino" actually means.