Northern Plains: El Nino Winter Outlook
Precip: drier · Temp: warmer · Moderate confidence
North and South Dakota, Nebraska, and Minnesota sit in the northern-tier warm/dry lean, with fewer Arctic air intrusions than a typical winter as the polar jet stays displaced north.
The Northern Plains' clearest El Nino tendency isn't precipitation -- it's a milder winter with fewer severe cold-air outbreaks, which matters more for heating costs and livestock operations than for storm risk.
Historical strong-event comparison
How this exact region behaved in the strongest recent El Nino winters -- not a national average.
| Event | What happened here | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 1997-98 | One of the warmest winters on record across the Upper Midwest and northern Plains, with a notably mild, low-snow season. | NOAA CPC composite analysis |
| 2015-16 | A mild, low-snowfall winter consistent with the canonical composite. | NOAA CPC composite analysis |
Hazard flags
No elevated hazard flags for this region in the CPC composite.
Want the national picture first? See the 2026-27 winter forecast hub or check live current status.